Technology changes tasks before it eliminates occupations.
A job is usually a bundle of tasks. New technology can automate some tasks while leaving others intact or increasing their importance.
History · Technology · Work
Every technological revolution
changes the meaning of work.
Before asking what AI will do to jobs, look at what previous technological revolutions did to workers, occupations, wages, skills and entire industries.
The historical pattern
Technology rarely changes “jobs” in one simple direction.
A new machine may automate one task, make another task more valuable, create demand for an entirely new product, and change the skills required to perform the remaining work.
Historical research increasingly studies technological change at the level of tasks and occupations rather than asking only whether the total number of jobs increased or decreased.
That distinction is especially important for AI because today's systems can perform pieces of knowledge work rather than only physical tasks.
Timeline
Five technological eras worth understanding.
1st Industrial Revolution
c. 1760–1840
Steam, factories and mechanization
Mechanized production transformed textiles, transportation and manufacturing. Work moved through major changes in organization, skills and location.
Mechanization
2nd Industrial Revolution
c. 1870–1914
Electricity, steel and mass production
Electric power, steel, chemicals, telecommunications and large-scale production changed factories, cities and the structure of work.
Mass production
Computer Revolution
c. 1950–2000
Computers move into the workplace
Computers and information technology changed clerical work, manufacturing, communication and the skills employers demanded.
Computerization
Internet Revolution
c. 1990–2010s
The connected workplace
The internet reorganized communication, commerce, information access and entire industries while creating new digital occupations.
Digitalization
AI Revolution
2020s →
Machines that work with information
Generative AI can produce text, code, images, analysis and other forms of knowledge work, creating a different kind of technological transition.
AI
What history tells us
Six lessons to carry into the AI era.
Productivity does not automatically determine employment.
Higher productivity can reduce labor needed for a particular task while also lowering prices, increasing demand or creating new activities.
Transitions are rarely evenly distributed.
Workers, industries, regions and generations can experience the same technological change very differently.
New jobs often require new institutions.
Education, apprenticeships, labor markets, management practices and social policy can determine whether workers can move into emerging opportunities.
The transition can be painful even when the long-term economy grows.
Aggregate economic growth does not mean every worker, occupation or community benefits at the same time.
The speed of change matters.
Historical technological transitions often unfolded over decades. AI adoption may compress some changes into much shorter periods, which could make adjustment more difficult.
Featured comparison
Is AI the next Industrial Revolution?
Compare mechanization, electricity, computers and AI across speed, task substitution, job creation, worker transitions, wages and the skills people need.
Read the comparisonQuestions worth exploring
The history of work is full of uncomfortable questions.
Did the Industrial Revolution actually destroy jobs?
Why did some occupations disappear while others expanded?
What happened to wages during industrialization?
How did electricity change the workplace?
Did computers eliminate office jobs?
What can the Luddites teach us about AI?
Why do new technologies create some jobs but destroy others?
Is AI different from previous technological revolutions?
FAQ
History of technology and jobs FAQ
Did technology always destroy jobs?+
No. Historical technological change has produced a mixture of job displacement, job transformation and new employment. The effects depend on the technology, how firms adopt it, consumer demand, investment and institutions.
What was the Industrial Revolution?+
The Industrial Revolution describes a major transformation in production beginning in Britain in the eighteenth century and spreading internationally. Mechanization, steam power, factories and new transportation systems changed how goods were produced and distributed.
Did workers lose jobs during the Industrial Revolution?+
Some occupations and forms of work declined or were transformed, while other forms of employment expanded. Historical evidence therefore needs to distinguish between occupational displacement and total employment.
Was the Industrial Revolution good or bad for workers?+
Its effects varied by period, occupation and population. Industrialization contributed to major increases in productive capacity and eventually living standards, while many workers experienced difficult working conditions, slow wage growth and disruptive transitions.
How is AI different from earlier industrial technology?+
Earlier industrial technologies primarily transformed physical production and transportation. AI can affect information-processing and cognitive tasks across many industries, potentially making its occupational effects broader in the white-collar economy.
Can history predict what AI will do to jobs?+
History cannot provide a precise forecast. It can provide useful mechanisms and comparisons, such as task substitution, new demand, skill changes, capital investment and institutional adaptation.
Research
Sources & further reading
NBER — Technology and Labor Markets: Past, Present, and Future ↗NBER — Technological Disruption in the Labor Market ↗Annual Review of Economics — Learning From Ricardo and Thompson: Machinery and Labor in the Early Industrial Revolution and in the Age of Artificial Intelligence ↗Oxford Economic Papers — Slow real wage growth during the Industrial Revolution ↗